Wednesday, March 24, 2010

COBRA STATS

COBRA SCORECARD EXPLAINED

Where to begin?

Handicaps.

Every player playing in the 8ball league is assigned a handicap. Handicaps are designed to create an even playing field. In theory if people are handicapped correctly and they play to their handicaps, results would be very equal in any encounter.

To explain For & Against etc. let's start with a simple example.

Example.
- Diddy’s handicap is 7.5.
- Diddy wins his first game 10-5.
- Diddy loses his 2nd game 7-10.
- Diddy loses his 3rd game 4-10.
- Diddy wins his 4th game 10-2.
- Diddy wins his final game 10-7.

For & Against.

For & Against tells each player how they went on the night (or over the course of the competition).

To get Diddy’s “for” you add up the points Diddy scored. In this example Diddy scored 10, 7, 4, 10, 10. So Diddy’s “for” is 41.

Similar to get Diddy’s “against” you add up the points scored against Diddy. Diddy had 5, 10, 10, 2 and 7 scored against him, so Diddy’s “against” is 34.

Diddy’s for & against subtracts the amount scored against him (34) from the amound Diddy scored (41), so in this example, Diddy’s for & against is +7.

Handicap-Adjusted For & Against.

For & against tells each player how they did on the night, but does not provide feedback on how they are playing compared to their handicaps and therefore how valuable the player's performance is to the team. The only real way to compare the performance of players on different handicaps is to take their for & against and subtract their handicap from it.

In this example Diddy’s handicap is 7.5. A handicap is a representation of skill level (out of 30), but more importantly, it is the free points given to the opposition for that player. Ideally each player will aim to get these free points back through the games they win and their for & against.

So in this example, we’ve already established that the for & against is +7. As Diddy’s handicap is 7.5 (points given to the opposition), his adjusted for & against is -0.5 on the night in question.

Diddy's performance can now be compared to that of his team mates, when their For & Against and handicaps are evaluated, using this method.

Opposition/Handicap-Adjusted For & Against

The one thing that Handicap-Adjusted For & Against doesn't do, is tell us how we should have gone against our opposition, assuming the handicaps are representative of skill level.

In order for us to more closely match the way that the wizard views individual performance, we need to factor in the quality of the opposition.

To do this, instead of directly subtracting each person's handicap from their for & against on game night, we adjust each person's handicap against the average handicap of the opposition, and then adjust the net figure that results against the for & against on the night, to provide an adjusted for & against.

It's probably easiest to provide an example.

Let's say we're playing a team with the following handicaps: 5, 15, 20, 10, 10.

The opposition team's total handicap is 60.

Their average handicap (60/5) per player is 12.

The average handicap of the opposition is subtracted from our player's handicaps and then compared to their for & against for the night.

Here is how it would look for the Cobra players:

Pick is handicapped as a 20. In this example the opposition is 12, so Matt on his handicap is expected to score +8 against this opposition. Accordingly 8 will be subtracted from his total for & against for the night.

CB is handicapped as a 10. In this example, the opposition is 12, so Chris on his handicap is expected to score -2 against this opposition. Accordingly 2 will be added to his total for & against for the night.

Diddy & Pup are handicapped as 7.5. In this example, the opposition is 12, so Diddy & Pup on their handicaps are expected to score -4.5 against this opposition. Accordingly 4.5 will be added to their total for & against for the night.

Hooters is handicapped as -7.5. In this example, the opposition is 12, so Hooters on her handicap is expected to score -19.5 against this opposition. Accordingly 19.5 will be added to her total for & against for the night.

If we return to our original example and add this information in it goes like this;
- Diddy’s handicap is 7.5.
- Average opposition handicap is 12.
- Diddy gets to subtract 4.5 from his F&A.

- Diddy wins his first game 10-5.
- Diddy loses his 2nd game 7-10.
- Diddy loses his 3rd game 4-10.
- Diddy wins his 4th game 10-2.
- Diddy wins his final game 10-7.

- Diddy's F&A is 41-34 or +7.

- Diddy's opposition/handicap-adjusted F&A is +3.5.

It will be interesting to see how this changes the picture of how we're performing individually and in our contributions to the team.

Win/Loss%

Win/Loss% is simply a review of the games won versus the games played to give a % of games won. This provides additional information information about how each player is performing.

In this example Diddy played 5 games and won 3 of them. This is a win/loss% of 60.

How to deal with a negative handicap (statistically speaking).

Females are provided with an incentive in the league and can be graded with negative handicaps ranging up to -10.

If you subtract a minus, you are actually adding this figure on. In the example of Hooters, if she has a F&A for the night of +7 and her handicap is -7.5, her real contribution to the team on the night is:

+7 minus -7.5 = 14.5.

This accurately reflects the additional value that Hooters handicap provides to her team on the night.

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